Quick answer: Bitwise raised its 10-year bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036 on Oct. 28, 2026, up from $1.3 million last year. The forecast implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate, with a bear case of $130,686 and a bull case of $3.67 million.
The Bitwise bitcoin price target now stands at $1.6 million by 2036, up from $1.3 million a year ago. The asset manager published the new figure on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, and says bitcoin should be the best-performing major asset of the next decade.
The headline number is bold. However, the real story sits in the assumptions behind it, and in how wide the range of outcomes is.
What Bitwise announced
Bitwise released its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, an annual report for institutional investors. The Bitwise report lists a $1.6 million target, a 34.3% compound annual growth rate and average volatility of 27.8%. It also expects a 0.43 correlation with U.S. stocks.
For comparison, Bitwise says U.S. equities are forecast to return 6.7% a year. Private equity, the next-best asset class, is forecast at 10.8%, The Block reported. Those benchmarks are averages of forecasts from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock and Vanguard.
“We are more bullish on bitcoin today than we were last year,” said Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, in the company’s press release.
How the Bitwise bitcoin price target is built
Bitwise sizes the markets bitcoin could compete in by 2036. Then it gives bitcoin a share of each one. The firm kept its share assumptions from last year. Instead, it raised the size of the markets.
According to The Block, Bitwise now sees the global store-of-value market at $110 trillion in 2036, up from $91 trillion. It also sees the institutional investment market at $303 trillion, up from $216 trillion. The base case gives bitcoin 25% of store-of-value assets and 1% of institutional assets.
So the higher target does not come from a more aggressive view of bitcoin. It comes from a bigger view of the world. In our view, that matters. If gold and other hard assets keep growing, the target rises with them. If they shrink, it falls.
Data and context: the range is huge
The base case is $1,599,766, per Bitcoin Magazine. That is 34.3% growth a year from a starting price of about $83,557 on Sept. 30, 2026. The bear case is $130,686, while the bull case is $3.67 million.
Our own math shows how far apart these paths are. The bear case works out to only about 4.6% a year. That is below Bitwise’s own forecast for U.S. stocks. The bull case needs roughly 46% a year. In other words, the forecast is less a single number than a map of very different futures.
Bitcoin traded at $80,354 at 16:53 UTC on Oct. 28, 2026, per CoinGecko. Its market value stood near $1.62 trillion. As a result, the base case needs roughly a 20-fold rise from today.
The supply side is the core of the bull argument. Bitwise expects institutions to put 1% to 5% of their portfolios into bitcoin over the decade. It puts that demand at $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion. Meanwhile, mining adds only about $14 billion of new coins a year. Even across ten years, new supply at today’s prices is near $140 billion. That is about a tenth of the low-end demand estimate.
Still, the report admits recent weak spots. Hougan said much of the demand for hard assets went into gold, and ETF buying has slowed. Bitwise also notes bitcoin fell about half from its October 2025 peak above $126,000 to its June 2026 low. Earlier cycles saw drops of 86%, 84% and 77%.
Why it matters for investors
Long-term forecasts from asset managers shape how advisers size positions. A 1% allocation looks very different when a firm expects 34% a year rather than 7%. Therefore, reports like this one can steer real money, even though nobody can know 2036 prices.
Bitwise is also open about risks. Its report names quantum computing, AI-driven advances in mathematics and a reversal in regulation as the largest threats.
Bitwise is not alone in turning more upbeat. Galaxy recently argued that the bear market may already be over, as we covered in our look at the Galaxy call.
What to watch next
First, watch ETF flows. Bitwise’s thesis relies on steady institutional buying, so weak flows would test it quickly. Second, the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision later on Wednesday, which could move bitcoin in the short term. We set out the stakes in our Fed week preview. Third, watch gold. If hard-asset demand keeps favoring gold, bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market may grow more slowly than Bitwise expects.
Bitwise bitcoin price target FAQ
What is the Bitwise bitcoin price target for 2036?
Bitwise’s base case is about $1.6 million per bitcoin by 2036, up from $1.3 million in last year’s report. It implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate from roughly $83,557.
What are Bitwise’s bear and bull cases?
The bear case puts bitcoin at $130,686 by 2036, and the bull case reaches $3.67 million. The bear case assumes bitcoin wins only 2.5% of the store-of-value market.
Why did Bitwise raise its forecast?
Bitwise kept its market-share assumptions but raised its estimates of the store-of-value and institutional investment markets. It also cited a shallower bear market, progress on regulation and strong demand for hard assets.
Sources
- Bitwise: 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
- PR Newswire: Bitwise raises bitcoin price target to $1.6M by 2036
- The Block: Bitwise raises bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036
- Bitcoin Magazine: Bitwise raises bitcoin target to $1.6 million by 2036
- CoinGecko: Bitcoin price
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
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