Quick answer: The bitcoin Fed decision lands on Wed., Oct. 28, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET, and prediction markets price a 93% to 94.5% chance of no change. Strategy’s dividend vote, Microsoft and Alphabet results the same day, then Coinbase and Strategy earnings on Oct. 29, make it bitcoin’s busiest week since September.
The bitcoin Fed decision arrives on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, and markets expect the Fed to hold rates. Yet the bigger risk for BTC may be the 36 hours that follow, when Strategy, Coinbase and three Big Tech companies report.
At 19:52 UTC on Oct. 25, CoinGecko priced BTC at $80,516, flat over 24 hours. Ether traded at $2,348.68. Earlier on Saturday, BTC slipped toward $79,100, a five-week low, crypto.news reported.
What happened: a crowded calendar for bitcoin
Three separate events now sit inside two trading days. First, the Federal Open Market Committee meets Oct. 27-28. The statement comes at 2:00 p.m. ET on Oct. 28 and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, per the Fed’s calendar.
Second, Strategy holds a special shareholder meeting at 10:00 a.m. ET the same day. Holders will vote on paying dividends daily, instead of monthly or quarterly, on STRF, STRC, STRK and STRD, according to the company’s SEC proxy. Online voting closes at 11:59 p.m. ET on Oct. 27.
Third, earnings stack up. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close on Oct. 28. On Oct. 29, Coinbase, Amazon and Strategy all release third-quarter results after the U.S. close.
Why the bitcoin Fed decision matters this time
A hold is almost fully priced. Kalshi showed a 93% chance of no change on Oct. 25, and Polymarket’s October market priced no change at 94.5% with a 5.5% chance of a quarter-point hike, per its live data. The target range sits at 3.75%-4.00% after September’s 25-basis-point hike, which we covered when Fed chair Kevin Warsh spoke as bitcoin held $82,000.
So the decision itself is unlikely to move BTC. The guidance is another matter. Futures tracked by cdes.com price a 76% chance of another hike on Dec. 9. Therefore any hint that December is locked in could push the dollar and yields higher. In contrast, a softer tone could ease pressure on risk assets.
Ulys CEO Hugo Renaudin framed the week this way to Forbes: “The market is waiting on 3 events: the Fed meeting on the 28th, Strategy earnings on the 29th and the midterms on November 3rd.”
Data and context: price, ETF flows and Strategy
Our read is that bitcoin enters the week tired rather than broken. BTC peaked near $86,500 in early October, based on CoinGecko daily closes, and has made lower highs since. October has not helped either, as we noted in our look at bitcoin’s back-to-back red Octobers.
ETF demand is mixed. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million on Oct. 19 and $524.8 million on Oct. 21, according to Farside Investors. Then they lost $635.6 million on Oct. 22, the biggest outflow since June, and $137.9 million on Oct. 23. The week still closed at a net gain of about $301.2 million, which Decrypt called the end of a two-week losing streak.
Strategy adds a third layer. If shareholders approve, STRC moves to daily dividends first, starting with a Nov. 1 record date, while the other three shares follow from Jan. 1, per Strategy’s vote page. An Oct. 15 filing already set STRC’s November daily payouts, on the condition the change takes effect by Nov. 1. Meanwhile, the company bought only 267 BTC in its latest week while spending $193 million buying back STRC. We broke down that trade-off in our report on bitcoin preferred stock.
What to watch next
- Oct. 27, 11:59 p.m. ET: Strategy’s online voting closes.
- Oct. 28, 2:00 p.m. ET: The Fed statement. Watch for any language about the December meeting.
- Oct. 28, after the close: Microsoft and Alphabet results. AI spending and cloud growth set the tone for tech, which often trades with BTC.
- Oct. 29, 8:30 a.m. ET: Third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation data, as listed by FinancialMarkets.com.
- Oct. 29, after the close: Coinbase, Amazon and Strategy earnings. For Coinbase, trading volume and stablecoin revenue matter most. For Strategy, watch how much cash went to BTC versus buybacks and dividends.
- Nov. 3: U.S. midterm elections, which Psalion’s Tim Enneking told Forbes could be the biggest factor of all.
Key levels are simple. Holding $80,000 keeps the range intact. However, a daily close below Saturday’s $79,100 low would put the five-week downtrend in charge. If you spend crypto day to day, our crypto card comparison shows which cards let you pay without selling at a bad moment.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Bitcoin Fed decision FAQ
When is the Fed decision in October 2026?
The FOMC announces its decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET, with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The next meeting after that is Dec. 8-9, per the Federal Reserve calendar.
Will the Fed raise rates on Oct. 28?
Markets say probably not. On Oct. 25, Kalshi priced a 93% chance of a hold and Polymarket 94.5%, with the target range at 3.75%-4.00%. Futures price a likely hike in December instead.
What is Strategy voting on this week?
Strategy shareholders vote on Oct. 28 on paying daily dividends on its STRF, STRC, STRK and STRD preferred shares. If approved, STRC switches first, from the Nov. 1 record date. Dividend rates would not change.
Sources
- Federal Reserve: October 2026 calendar
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars
- Kalshi: Fed decision in October
- cdes.com: Fed rate expectations
- Strategy: special meeting DEF 14A (SEC)
- Strategy: Oct. 15 8-K on STRC dividends (SEC)
- Strategy: shareholder vote page
- Strategy: Q3 2026 earnings date
- Coinbase: Q3 2026 results date (Business Wire)
- Microsoft: earnings release date
- Amazon: Q3 2026 conference call
- Forbes: Bitcoin investors look to midterms and Fed meeting
- FinancialMarkets.com: The Fed, Big Tech and Strategy land in two days
- Farside Investors: Bitcoin ETF flows
- Decrypt: Bitcoin ETFs snap two-week losing streak
- crypto.news: Bitcoin price near $80K
- CoinGecko: Bitcoin price
